An essential step in the regional planning process is the projection of the probable nature and magnitude of changes in factors which are largely beyond the influence of the planning process but which must be considered in the preparation of a comprehensive plan. Among the most important of these factors are those relating to the size, distribution, and composition of the population and to the number, distribution, and types of employment opportunities, or jobs. Accordingly, SEWRPC periodically carries out demographic studies that project the future size, distribution, and composition of the resident population, and economic studies that project the future number, distribution, and types of jobs. These forecasts serve as a basis for updating and extending the comprehensive plan for the Region.

The population and economic analyses completed by SEWRPC in 2004 were the most recent in a number of in-depth analyses of the Region’s population and economic base conducted since 1960. The work resulted in the presentation of current and historical population, household, and employment information as well as population, household, and employment projections for the Region, both covering the period of 2000 to 2035. The results of this work have been documented in SEWRPC Technical Report No. 10 (4th Edition), The Economy of Southeastern Wisconsin, and SEWRPC Technical Report No. 11 (4th Edition), The Population of Southeastern Wisconsin. The work was overseen by the SEWRPC Advisory Committee on Regional Population and Economic Forecasts.

To deal with uncertainties concerning future population and employment levels, SEWRPC projects a range of such future levels — high, intermediate, and low — for the Region. The intermediate projections are considered the most likely to be achieved for the Region overall, and are used as the basis for regional plan preparation.

In 2000 the Region’s population stood at 1.93 million persons. By 2035 the population is forecast to increase by about 18 percent to a total of 2.28 million persons. This forecast envisions a modest increase in fertility and survival rates as well as minimal net migration for the Region overall. With baby boomers aging, about 20 percent of the population will be 65 years of age or older by 2035 as compared to 13 percent in 2000. In a companion forecast, the number of households in the Region is expected to increase by about 24 percent by 2035, with the average household size continuing to decrease from 2.52 persons per household in 2000 to 2.39 persons per household in 2035.

The number of jobs in the Region, which stood at about 1.22 million in 2000, is forecast to increase by about 12 percent by 2035 to a total of about 1.37 million The strength of the regional economy is not projected to significantly increase or decrease relative to the State or nation. The overall labor force is expected to level off as the baby boomer generation reaches retirement age, moderating the number of jobs able to be accommodated. Also projected is a continuing shift in the Region from a manufacturing to a service based economy.